Variable-income operators always carry a mental list of "money that might land." A proposal out for signature, a retainer that probably renews, a referral the client mentioned but never sent. The trap is letting any of that count as real money. The opposite trap is ignoring it entirely and underestimating runway.
Confidence levels are how ReservWise threads that needle. Every income line you log gets one of three tags. The forecast uses each tag differently.
The three confidence levels
- Confirmed. The money is on its way. Invoice sent, contract signed, deposit received, or scheduled retainer with a payment history. Treated as real income with a date attached.
- Likely. Strong signal but not guaranteed. Signed proposal pending kickoff, verbal yes from a returning client, recurring engagement that has paid the last 3 months on time.
- Speculative. A real lead but no commitment. Sent a proposal you have not heard back on, a referral mentioned in passing, an opportunity in early discovery.
How each level affects the forecast
The runway forecast applies a weight to each line based on its confidence:
- Confirmed counts at 100% of its dollar amount on its expected date.
- Likely counts at a default of 70%. Adjustable per stream in Settings → Forecasting → Confidence weights.
- Speculative counts at a default of 30%. Also adjustable.
So a $4,000 Likely deal shows up as $2,800 of expected cash on its expected date in the forecast, not the full $4,000. A $10,000 Speculative deal contributes $3,000. Confirmed counts in full because it is already real.
How to log each one
From the dashboard, click + Add expected income. You will be asked for amount, expected date, source (which client or channel), and confidence. Pick the level that matches the strongest signal you actually have — not the one you wish were true.
Honest Confirmed
Confirmed should mean the money is in motion. An invoice sent (not just drafted), a contract signed (not "they said yes"), a deposit received. If something in your gut says "yes but they could still ghost," it is Likely, not Confirmed.
Honest Likely
Likely means there is a signed-or-equivalent commitment but the cash has not started moving. Verbal yes from a long-time client. A proposal accepted in writing but no kickoff scheduled. A retainer in its 4th month of on-time payment.
Honest Speculative
Speculative is a lead with real signal but no commitment. Sent a quote, awaiting reply. An old client who said "we should work together again" with no follow-up. A referral that is real but cold. If it is purely wishful thinking, do not log it at all.
Moving income up the levels
Most income lines move up the confidence ladder over time. A speculative quote becomes a likely engagement when the client signs. A likely engagement becomes confirmed when the first invoice goes out. ReservWise lets you promote a line in one click — open the income line and click Promote to Likely or Promote to Confirmed. The expected date and amount carry over.
If a line dies — the deal falls through, the proposal is rejected — open it and click Mark lost. The line stays in your reports for win-rate analysis but stops contributing to the forecast.
Why this matters for reserves
Your runway calculation determines whether ReservWise tells you to spend, save, or pull in. If you log a speculative deal as confirmed, the forecast says you have more runway than you do — and you might draw from a reserve you should have been building. If you refuse to log speculative income at all, the forecast says you have less runway than you do — and you stay in survival mode when you could be growing.
The confidence-level system exists so the forecast can be honest in both directions: hopeful enough to plan with, conservative enough to trust.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Logging hopes as Likely. If you have not had the conversation, it is not Likely. Be strict here — Likely is the level that has the biggest weight effect short of Confirmed.
- Logging Speculative deals at full value. Some operators bump speculative weights to 80% because "I always close." The point of Speculative is that you have not closed yet. Trust the weight.
- Forgetting to promote. A signed Likely deal that never gets promoted to Confirmed makes your runway look worse than it is. Promote on signature, not on payment.
- Forgetting to mark lost. Dead deals dragging on your forecast skew the math. Mark them lost the moment you know.
- Treating confidence as a sales-team metric. Confidence in ReservWise is a forecasting tool. It is not a reflection of how good you are at sales.
What to do next
- Add 3 expected-income lines for the next 60 days. Use a mix of Confirmed, Likely, and Speculative.
- Watch the runway chart shift as you change a line from Speculative to Likely to Confirmed — you will see exactly how the weights affect the curve.
- Read How runway is calculated for the formula behind the weighting.
- After 60 days, open Reports → Pipeline conversion and tune your weights to match your actual close rate.
Confidence levels are not optimism vs pessimism. They are a way to make optimism legible to the system so the system can do its job.